Doug wrote:
Thanks Doug for playing the devil's advocate, allowing me to look up all sorts
of interesting data. Quoting from Wikipedia:
"In ... 1905, Einstein completed his thesis, with Alfred Kleiner, Professor of
Experimental Physics, serving as pro-forma advisor. Einstein was awarded a PhD
by the University of Zurich. His dissertation was entitled "A New Determination
of Molecular Dimensions". That same year, which has been called Einstein's annus
mirabilis or "miracle year", he published four groundbreaking papers, on the
photoelectric effect, Brownian motion, special relativity, and the equivalence
of matter and energy, which were to bring him to the notice of the academic world.
By 1908, he was recognized as a leading scientist, and he was appointed lecturer
at the University of Berne."
The department of theoretical physics of the University of Bern, in the same
buildung where climate physicist Thomas Stocker and also I work, still honours
Einstein with his name, see
http://www.itp.unibe.ch/index.html?lang=0&id=1
"The following year, he quit the patent office and the lectureship to take the
position of physics docent at the University of Zurich. He became a full
professor at Karl-Ferdinand University in Prague in 1911. In 1914, he returned
to Germany after being appointed director of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for
Physics (1914–1932) and a professor at the Humboldt University of Berlin,
although with a special clause in his contract that freed him from most teaching
obligations. He became a member of the Prussian Academy of Sciences. In 1916,
Einstein was appointed president of the German Physical Society (1916–1918).
In 1911, he had calculated that, based on his new theory of general relativity,
light from another star would be bent by the Sun's gravity. That prediction was
claimed confirmed by observations made by a British expedition led by Sir Arthur
Eddington during the solar eclipse of May 29, 1919. International media reports
of this made Einstein world famous. ...
In 1921, Einstein was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics. Because relativity was
still considered somewhat controversial, it was officially bestowed for his
explanation of the photoelectric effect. He also received the Copley Medal from
the Royal Society in 1925."
Therefore while it is true that Einstein was at his most brilliant before he
became a full professor, he by no means came from the outside.
The Wright brothers also had very good credentials. They were machinists and
bicycle mechanics, thus knew all about lightweight construction and dynamic
control, both essential for constructing airplanes. They might be ideal AWE
researchers!
...
Your point that people are often biased in favour of the fields where they work,
or their employers, is well taken. However your last statement is false. There
is much more money in climate change denial than climate change research. The
Koch brothers and oil companies would bestow great riches on established
scientists who discredit climate change:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer
Howver scienece doesn't work that way. In the long run, it's about facts, not
beliefs. Of course there are points view, controversy and mistakes. But the
system leads to consisent knowledge. Einstein himself didn't believe in quantum
physics "God doesn't play dice." Today quantum physics is a fact and does not
discredit earlier physical knowledge.
Therefore only a small minority of scientists are into climate change denial, no
matter how much money they get.
Few million? It only shows half a million. The article this chart is from puts
it into perspective, see
http://www.seed.slb.com/subcontent.aspx?id=2316 and
http://www.seed.slb.com/subcontent.aspx?id=4090
The temperature curve itself is an old long since resolved controversy, see
http://www.jstor.org/pss/30085008 and
http://www.jstor.org/pss/30085009
See also
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming_controversy for a detailed
overview.
The point is: cyclic climate swings are normal, but the rate of change is
abnormally fast. And in spite of this, nature won't mind, mankind will survive
and even civilisation will survive. But the quality of lfe for the majority of
people will surely decline if we can't decrease the rate of climate change.
Theo Schmidt
